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NL Home Run Report: Power Surges and Outages

Roto Jones's picture
Submitted by Roto Jones on Wed, 06/11/2008 - 8:17am.
  • Streaks And Slumps
  • MLB Baseball

Chicks dig the long ball...but so do fantasy baseball managers!  Almost a third of the way through the MLB season, it's time to take a quick look at the National League Home Run race.  Why?  Power hitters tend to be some of the most expensive and highly drafted players.  And big home run numbers typically lead to other big counting stats, such as runs batted in and runs scored.

The top 10 as of 6/10/08:

Player Team Home Runs Extrapolated
Chase Utley PHI 21 63
Lance Berkman HOU 19 57
Dan Uggla FLA 18 54
Ryan Braun MLW 17 51
Adrian Gonzalez SD 17 51
Pat Burrell PHI 16 48
Albert Pujols STL 16 48
Adam Dunn CIN 16 48
Ryan Ludwick STL 15 45
Alfonso Soriano CHC 15 45
Chipper Jones ATL 15 45
Ryan Howard PHI 15 45
Hanley Ramirez FLA 15 45
Mike Jacobs FLA 15 45

Second Base Power Surge:

It's not suprising to see Chase Utley near or atop the home run leaders in the National League.  But the fact that he's on pace for 60+ home runs this season is a bit unheard of from a second baseman.  In fact, the all-time single season home run record for second baseman is 42 (shared by Rogers Hornsby, STL, '22 and Davey Johnson, ATL, '73).  Throw in the fact that Dan Uggla is currently third in the NL with 18 home runs (on pace for 54), and you have perhaps the greatest display of power from the second base position in history! 

Power at PETCO?

Adrian Gonzalez has always been a great power prospect.  The only reason his name is sometimes forgotten in the discussion of great NL power hitters resides in five little letters: PETCO.  San Diego's spacious, pitcher-friendly ballpark has cut into the power numbers of pretty much anyone that's donned cleats on its turf.  But here is Gonzalez sitting only 4 home runs behind Utley.  Has Gonzalez figured out how to tame PETCO?  No.  10 of his home runs have come on the road.  That's actually not that bad of a split stat (10 on the road, 7 at home), at least compared to some Colorado hitters of past and present.  But Gonzalez's power potential is somewhat tempered by playing half of his games being in San Diego. 

Ryan Braun is a STUD:

Seriously, do I need to say anything else?  So he's not on the same pace he was a year ago, but he's not that far off.  Following up his unbelievable rookie season, he's tweatering around .300 BA, and on pace to surpass his previous home run total of 34.

Some of These Names are Not Like The Others...

A couple of the players on this list are a bit suprising...with some more so than others.  Sure, Uggla might look funny atop this list, but he's always had good power.  If only his batting average could keep up.  And Mike Jacobs put up a suprising 20 home runs back in 2006, but the most home runs he's hit in a season at any professional level is 25 at AA in '05.  Even though he's on pace to crush his career home run high, he screams of a sell-high candidate.  Hey, while we're staying in Florida, let's bring up Hanley Ramirez.  How can this speedy short stop find his way into the top 10 home run leaders?  Well, he did smash 29 dingers last year.  Many thought this was a bit of a fluke.  Perhaps he's showing us now that the power is definately legit.  Honestly, the most shocking thing about seeing his name on the list is that he's tied with Ryan Howard.  And the winner for the most misplaced name on the list...Ryan Ludwick.  Who is this guy helping lead the charge in St. Louis?  I'm not sure, but I do know that he put up 29 long balls in AAA in '06, as well as 14 in the majors last year.  Of course he's playing over his head...but the question would be if you could actually get fair value for him in the fantasy markets.

I'm Not On The List?

Hmm...who's missing?  Perhaps Derek Lee?  No worries, he's comfortably sitting at 14, just one away from making the list.  An interesting thing of note is Brian McCann's current power surge.  Sitting with 12 bombs in his pocket, he's tied with David Wright,  Carlos Lee and Chris Young.  Throw in the fact that he's currently ahead of Prince Fielder, Mark Texeira, Aramis Ramirez, Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Miguel Tejada, and Jeff Francour, and his owners are loving the production they're getting out of their catcher spot.

Chris Shelton Effect:

The normal disclaimers apply.  This is only a snapshot of the NL about 1/3 of the way through the season.  There's still a lot of ball to be played, so this list will change considerably.  Ludwick could easily end up with 18 home runs for the year, just as Jay Bruce could emerge as a top contender (and many fantasy owners are banking on that!). 

 

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The Goddamn Devil's picture

I love that you call it the

Submitted by The Goddamn Devil on Thu, 06/19/2008 - 3:02pm.

I love that you call it the Chris Shelton effect! I got quite a chuckle from that.

The great thing about fantasy baseball is there are always guys that come out of nowhere or relatively no where that excel.

I was very high on Adrian Gonzalez this year but did not end up drafting him in my league, but i'm glad to see him doing so well in Petco of all places!

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